Malignant skin cancers impose an escalating and heterogeneous health burden worldwide.1 Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 database,2 we summarize these cancers’ epidemiology, subgroup patterns, and projections to 2050.
Methods
We analyzed GBD 2023 estimates (1990-2023) for malignant melanoma, cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, and basal cell carcinoma. Outcomes included prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; years of life lost due to premature death plus years lived with disability). Subgroup analyses were conducted by sex, age group, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI; range, 0-1), defined as the geometric mean of indices of fertility in those younger than 25 years, education among those aged 15 years and older, and lag-distributed income per capita. Projections to 2050 used a bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model, a bayesian hierarchical framework that jointly estimates age, period, and cohort effects and provides uncertainty intervals. For basal cell carcinoma, we excluded the 2005 to 2009 surveillance-artifact period and fit projections using 2010 to 2023 data. Additional methods are provided in the eMethods in Supplement 1. This study was deemed to be not human participant research by Shenzhen People’s Hospital; therefore, institutional review board approval and informed consent were not required.
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